Sovereign Debt Dynamics Simulator (5-Year Horizon)
Policy Levers
Fiscal Consolidation (Primary Balance % of GDP):
-1.0%
**Primary Surplus** (positive value) is the most powerful tool to reduce the debt *numerator*.
One-Off Sovereign Asset Sale (Year 1, % of GDP):
0.0%
Models a one-time windfall (like the GFECRA use) that immediately reduces the debt stock in Year 1.
Governance / Stability Score (0-10):
5.0
Manufacturing/Export Growth Factor (1-10%):
3%
Skill Investment Factor (0-10):
4.0
Effective Interest Rate on Debt (Base 8.0%, adjusted):
8.0%
*Lower rates reduce the interest component of debt increase.*
Debt-to-GDP Ratio (%)
Nominal GDP Growth (%)
Currency (ZAR/USD)
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